Introduction
In this Working Paper, Working Paper, we investigate future threats to the security, socio-economic and democratic systems of (potential) Candidate Countries (CCs) for European Union (EU) membership in the Eastern Neighbourhood (EN3) and Western Balkans (WB6). For this, we develop and apply a complementary scenario-based foresight and data-based forecasting approach to identify future geopolitical threats resulting from the geopolitical ambitions and activities of China, Russia, Turkey, the United States and the Arab countries of the Gulf (external state actors) up to 2035.
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According to the REUNIR project’s conceptual framework, we define threats as ‘a function of capabilities and intent to exploit vulnerabilities’ in the resilience of CCs in the EN3 and WB6 (Bressan et al., 2024, p. 7). Resilience is defined as ‘the ability not only to withstand and cope with challenges but also to undergo transitions in a sustainable, fair, and democratic manner’ (European Union, European Commission, 2020, p.6). To cover potential future threats across the full spectrum of security, socio-economic and democratic systems and means – including activities below the threshold of open hostility – we investigate foreign malign influence (FMI) defined as influence attempts by external state actors that have the potential to undermine the resilience and EU accession prospects of the EN3 and WB6. This definition of FMI goes beyond narrow understandings that focus on interference in the information domain only (see Bressan et al. 2024, p. 14)
Prior analyses in the REUNIR project focused on identifying and assessing threats based on calculable risks in the past and present. The geopolitical reality in the WB6 and EN3, however, shows that basing analyses and policy on past patterns and known risks is not enough to anticipate and prepare for the future – something the EU has realised and responded to with investments in strategic foresight research to inform policy practice (e.g., European Commission, 2025). With this Paper, we therefore set out to identify and analyse future threats that result from both calculable risks and radical uncertainties, building on a theoretical framework based on Katzenstein and Seybert (2018) that links the exercise of power to risk and uncertainty (see Bressan et al., 2024, p.7; based on Katzenstein & Seybert 2018).
Specifically, the framework posits that scholars have mostly focused on actors’ ability to exercise control in the face of calculable future risks (Katzenstein & Seybert, 2018, p. 80). This capability-focused view neglects the fact that political actors mostly operate under radical uncertainty, in which case control power – responding to calculable risks with established tools and standard operating procedures – fails (Katzenstein & Seybert 2018, p. 80 f.). Instead, risks stemming from uncertainty require protean power, which emerges from ‘practices of agile actors coping with uncertainty’ (Katzenstein & Seybert 2018, p. 80, see Table 1 below).
To assess uncertainty-based future threats, we apply what we call a possibilistic methodology – i.e. expert-based, collaborative scenario foresight that is designed to counter common biases in thinking about the future and anticipate threats emerging from radical uncertainty when ‘predictive accuracy is unobtainable’ (Katzenstein & Seybert 2018, 90; see Katzenstein & Seybert 2018, 87; Bressan et al., 2024;). In addition, we apply a predictive methodology – i.e. data-based simulated forecasts – to assess calculable risk of future FMI. This latter approach relies on data from the past to extrapolate and model future FMI to show how future risk can be approximated numerically.
With its distinct focus on the future; on both uncertainties and risks; and on external geopolitical state actors, this Working Paper contributes a building block to the REUNIR project’s overall goal of identifying how EU foreign policy toolboxes can and should be made fit for purpose in support of the CCs.
Chapter 2 of this report presents the development and analysis of a collaborative scenario-building process to identify the most critical, plausible uncertainty-based threats that could emerge from the geopolitical ambitions and foreign influence activities of non-EU powers. The section also presents survey-based expert
assessments of the most relevant dimensions for the future of resilience in the EN3 and WB6, as well as underrated future FMI from external state actors. It complements existing analyses by offering a broad perspective on FMI across security, socio-economic and democratic resilience and a structured, systematic exploration of potential future influence from a set of geopolitically relevant external state actors.
Next, Chapter 3 presents the methodology and analysis of our data-based forecasting and simulation approach to estimate future levels of FMI up to 2030. Constrained by the limited availability of structured data on FMI that can be used for forecasting, the quantitative proxy used to operationalise the concept of FMI is the Resurgent Authoritarian Influence (RAI) tracker score (Springman et al., 2022). Chapter 4 synthesises our overall findings, discusses them in the light of REUNIR’s overall goal and outlines next steps for the project and future research.
