REUNIR

THE METHODOLOGY FOR THREAT ASSESSMENT TO BE CONDUCTED IN WP3, 4 AND 5

THE METHODOLOGY FOR THREAT ASSESSMENT TO BE CONDUCTED IN WP3, 4 AND 5

Introduction

The EU needs foreign policy instruments that are fit for purpose to support the countries of the Western Balkans (WB6) and Eastern neighbourhood (EN3) against the geopolitical ambitions of states that seek to undermine their democratic trajectory towards EU accession. These instruments need to, by definition, be designed for a tomorrow in which military aggression, malign influence operations and shocks will likely impact the democratic resilience of the EU’s neighbourhood and the effectiveness of the EU’s policies in yet unknown ways. REUNIR’s strategic foresight methodology is designed to (1) assess current and anticipate future threats and (2) suggest ways to make the EU’s policy toolkits more robust to counter these threats, and support resilience in and EU integration of the WB6 and EN3. In this paper, we outline the methodology with which we seek to identify, assess, and prioritise threats and design policy recommendations.

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