Authors: Niklas Balbon (Research Fellow / Global Public Policy Institute) and Julia Friedrich (Research Fellow / Global Public Policy Institute)
Abstract
This paper critically engages literature on Russia’s and China’s respective engagement in foreign influencing operations in the Western Balkans and the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood countries. It zooms in on how sources depict the motivation of Moscow and Beijing to conduct these operations, finding that despite a growing body of literature on the methods and consequences of such influence, the underlying rationales of the authoritarian actors remain insufficiently investigated. Through a review of 51 policy and scholarly sources, we identify recurring assumptions about Russian and Chinese rationales—ranging from geopolitical strategy and regime preservation to economic leverage and identity formation—but find these explanations often lack empirical substantiation. This gap in evidence-based inquiry poses risks for policy-making, as it may result in ineffective or misaligned countermeasures. We recommend greater transparency about epistemic limits, encourage triangulated research methods, and advocate for the integration of scenario planning to navigate persistent uncertainties in assessing malign foreign influence.
