Executive Summary
This policy brief presents three recommendations for how the European Union (EU) can strengthen the democratic, socio-economic, and security resilience of (potential) Candidate Countries (CCs) against foreign malign influence. Drawing on foresight analysis for the period 2026-2035, the recommendations translate key uncertainties in the EU enlargement environment into practical policy options. To ensure success, the recommendations are designed to remain effective across a range of plausible futures by building long-term linkages to EU structures and by embedding safeguards to mitigate potential risks. In doing so they provide targeted, forward-looking additions to the EU’s enlargement toolkit, increasing resilience against foreign malign influence while supporting the democratic and European future of CCs.
The recommendations were developed by regional experts in a strategic policy design workshop, building on REUNIR’s threat scanning and strategic foresight work. They address three urgent fields of action across the democratic, socio-economic, and security domains and are designed to be anticipatory, preventative, and robust. The policy options were then stress-tested through several rounds of robustness checks.
Recommendation 1 (democratic domain):
- The European Commission, in cooperation with the European Economic and Social Committee, should establish an ‘EU + CC Civic Council’ as a formal channel between EU institutions and civil society to strengthen democratic oversight in the accession process and protect civic space.
Recommendation 2 (socio-economic domain):
- The European Commission should reduce state-capture risks in CCs by structurally integrating countries into EU innovation ecosystems, thereby accelerating high-value economic diversification through competitive funding, common standards, and cross-border partnerships.
Recommendation 3 (security domain):
- The European External Action Service, under the leadership of the High Representative/Vice-President, should create an EU+ security forum with CCs. This would help to strengthen resilience against external shocks, deepen practical security cooperation during the accession process, and lay the groundwork for stronger security assurances over time.
